The best laid plans…
When it comes to planning, I prefer to optimise for agility more than anything else. Responding to new information over following a plan. Long term vision, yes. But I don’t fool myself into thinking that I can predict the future.
In business this means short term goals with even shorter term experiments, over focusing on long term planning. But why is agility so important?
“There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.” - Peter Drucker
A plan is a set of actions with deadlines attached to it. Following a plan increases the likelihood of getting the outcome that you plan for. So far, so good.
But what if, halfway through, I learn that the outcome I planned for isn’t actually the outcome I want? Do I stick with the plan or stop what I’m doing to regroup?
The sad reality is that a lot of organisations incentivise following the plan, even when it’s clear to the people executing on it that it’s the wrong plan. There are several reasons for it. Sunk cost fallacy, prestige, incentives tied to hitting pre-set milestones etc.
One thing I know, though: The larger the scope of the plan, the harder it seems to be to change it when new information comes in. So when creating plans, a small scope is better than a large one.
“Strong opinions, loosely held.” - Jeff Bezos
Willingness to change or scrap plans as new information comes in opens up new possibilities. This could be discovering that your failed superglue is perfect for temporarily hold pieces of paper on a wall without leaving a mark (post-its) or it could be a global pandemic changing the playing field.
It could also be data showing that a feature you thought was minor, actually is the most used feature in the whole app. That is probably a more common case than pandemics. Every time I speak to a customer I get new data. Actually acting on this data could be the difference between failure and success.
This was certainly the case for Netflix. Most people know that they started out as a DVD-rental company before pivoting to streaming. But the reason they were able to do so was a much earlier decisions.
When Netflix launched back in 1997 they launched their mailorder rental business with a traditional pay-per-rental model. This had multiple problems, such as high shipping costs, and due dates and late fees leading to customers being annoyed.
The stroke of brilliance came in 1999 when they introduced a subscription plan. Unlimited rentals for a flat monthly fee with no due dates or late fees. Customers loved it and in early 2000 they did away with pay-per-rental all together.
This would not have been possible had it not been for their culture of staying agile through running experiments.
“It’s easier to act your way into a new way of thinking, than think your way into a new way of acting.” - Jerry Sternin
By being light on their feet, Netflix could pivot their business model in a relatively short timeframe. But how can organisations systematically build in more agility?
It starts by optimising for the short term learning and long term profits. Rather than committing to a multi-year roadmap, I prefer to have 3 month “themes”. These themes are there to turn all the heads in the same direction, which maximises the forces in the business. Each theme is then filled with 2-4 week experiments.
2-4 weeks sounds suspiciously close to sprints. You can call it sprints if you want, but I am hesitant to do so. The classic sprint has come to be about completing a collection of work in a set timeframe. This is not how we want to look at things.
Instead we should think in terms of hypothesis that can either be proved or disproved using data. Turn “what do you want to ship this week” into “what do you want to learn this week”.
To fortify this culture of experimentation, you could run monthly retros or a biweekly company newsletter filled with brief post-mortems. The possibilities are endless! My only advice is to celebrate learnings over punishing failure.
“Nothing is quite so contagious as an opportunity.” - Robert Burgelman
This methodology of running experiments instead of following a grand plan flies in the face of most traditional project management theory, and even the classic budget cycle thinking.
To be clear, though, I’m not saying you should throw out all of your long term goals and plans. I still think the act of planning is important. But I believe planning is only important for setting overarching direction.
The point is to not let your plans and goals become a prison. Rather, let them be the base for where you will run your next experiment.
